• South Sudan : Peace Talks without Peace And without Talks

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    The other pre-conditions of the opposition – the complete release of the four still detained and the withdrawal of the Ugandan troops – had not been met . As a result , after six days of “peace talks” , nobody has started talking . And if they do , what could they be talking about . The peace ? On January 23rd the government and those it termed “the rebels” had signed a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement . But the hostilities had not stopped . They simply had slowed down due to shortages of fuel and ammunition . But this did not apply to the Ugandan forces , which were still largely supplied with both . 

    Last Updated on Monday, 17 February 2014 08:45
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  • South Sudan : the humanitarian disaster

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    There are large unopened mass graves in Malakal and others in Bor . Part of the figure of 29,000 are the 11,000 Nuer casualties in Juba dating back to December . But there are many closed houses from which a strong stench of rotting corpses is issuing and that nobody dares to open . Worse , the massacres are still going on in Juba itself at present , albeit at a lower level of intensity.

    Last Updated on Sunday, 16 February 2014 12:17
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  • South Sudan : the war spreads as the “peace talks” run around in circles

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    While unimaginative foreigners kept lazily repeating “ethnic war ! ethnic war !” , the exact opposite was happening : the ethnic groups were cracking up and taking sides politically . On Friday January 10th Salva’s troops took Bentiu from the rebel 4th division . But what were those troops ? Not SPLA but an assortment of SSLM former rebels and JEM northern rebels , blackmailed by Museveni into joining Salva under the threat of seeing their supply lines to Uganda cut off .

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  • South Sudan : Military lull and diplomatic discomfiture

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    The whole fragile equilibrium hinges on the rebels practically giving up . It would be enough for them to find a foreign sponsor , public or private , or to mobilize enough cash to buy ammunition and fuel on the open market , to suddenly upset the whole thing . 

    Last Updated on Thursday, 23 January 2014 20:25
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  • South Sudan : the Nairobi IGAD meeting turns complicated matters into more complicated ones

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    Many turned to be hopeless observers. This leaves only one serious player at the centre of the ring : President Museveni of Uganda . And the whole thing was indeed an almost pure piece of Ugandan diplomacy . How successful in the long run , this remains to be seen . But in the short run , it was masterful . Riak Machar , who is a pet peeve of the Ugandan President , was “dealt with” , Ugandan troops have already been spotted in the fighting for Malakal , others are up in Wau , preparing for an attack on Bentiu...

    Last Updated on Sunday, 29 December 2013 13:23
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